New Delhi : Fears that a strong El Niño event could severely disrupt India’s 2027 monsoon may be premature, meteorologists told Times of India, pointing to historical patterns showing that major El Niño systems often weaken significantly before the June-September rainy season arrives.
Forecasts currently suggest a strong El Niño could emerge by late 2026 or winter and extend into early 2027, TOI reported. However, an analysis of some of the strongest El Niño episodes since 1951 — including the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 events — indicates that these systems typically peak around the end of the year before fading ahead of the Indian monsoon, according to the paper.
During the record 1997-98 El Niño, Pacific Ocean warming intensified steadily through 1997, with sea surface temperature anomalies climbing above 2°C by late that year, TOI reported. But by mid-1998, conditions had weakened sharply and transitioned into La Niña. A similar pattern was observed during the 2015-16 event, the newspaper said.
An India Meteorological Department official told TOI that strong El Niño events generally lose strength before the following monsoon and often shift towards neutral or La Niña conditions. Early subsurface cooling signals in the western Pacific may already hint at such a transition next year, the official added, while cautioning that long-range forecasts remain uncertain.
Experts also stressed that stronger El Niño events do not automatically translate into weaker Indian monsoons. Skymet’s GP Sharma noted that past strong El Niño years produced mixed outcomes, ranging from severe droughts to normal monsoon seasons, showing that several climatic factors influence India’s rainfall.
