New Delhi : As Assam gears up for May 4, the BJP-led alliance is eyeing a third consecutive term, setting up a potential political hat-trick that mirrors the Congress’ own three-term run from 2001 to 2016 under Tarun Gogoi, the state’s longest-serving chief minister.
The moment carries a sharp irony for CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, who was once a key Congress leader in that very government. Having switched to the BJP in 2015 and gone on to become the party’s most prominent face in the state, Sarma now finds himself at the forefront of a bid to replicate the kind of political dominance he was once part of on the other side.
The roots of this political churn trace back to the final years of the Gogoi era. Around 2012-13, Tarun Gogoi began pushing for the political entry of his son, Gaurav Gogoi, who formally joined the Congress in 2014. As Gaurav started gaining visibility in both the government and the party, it reportedly triggered unease within sections of the leadership, most notably Sarma, then one of Gogoi’s most trusted lieutenants and a powerful minister.
The tensions soon spilled into open dissent. Sarma rebelled against the Congress leadership and, in 2015, crossed over to the BJP along with several MLAs.
“I have submitted my resignation as minister to the Governor (J.B. Patnaik) as I have protested Gogoi’s leadership,” he told reporters after putting in his papers at the Raj Bhavan.
“About 38 MLAs went with me to the Raj Bhavan but it was my private journey. I have no confidence in Tarun Gogoi’s leadership. We are fighting for our party and under Gogoi’s leadership Congress will come down to single digit in 2016,” he said.
Tarun Gogoi would later go on to state that Sarma was impatient for the top post, a remark that underscored the growing rift within the Congress at the time.
The fallout reshaped Assam’s politics. In the 2016 Assembly elections, the BJP ended Congress’ 15-year rule and formed its first government in the state, with Himanta Biswa Sarma widely credited as a key architect of that breakthrough.
By 2021, Sarma had realised his long-held chief ministerial ambition when the BJP replaced Sarbananda Sonowal with him at the helm.
Meanwhile, Gaurav Gogoi steadily rose within the Congress, winning the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2024, and continuing as the party’s deputy leader in the Lower House.
Himanta Biswa Sarma during a political rally this year.Himanta Biswa Sarma during a political rally this year.
Now, based on 2026 exit poll projections, the BJP-led NDA appears poised for a historic third straight term in Assam, with a comfortable majority, while the Congress-led opposition trails behind. The numbers point to a strong pro-incumbency wave under Sarma and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reinforcing the BJP’s grip on the state.
If the results on May 4 align with these projections, Sarma will not just secure another victory but complete a full political circle — from a Congress insider during its three-term dominance to the leader driving the BJP’s own hat-trick in Assam.
