New Delhi: As Tamil Nadu’s vote count hurtles toward a stunning climax, one question eclipses all others: Can Vijay become Chief Minister on his own, or will he need AIADMK’s support? The answer hangs in the balance, with the actor-politician’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) defying all political gravity.
According to the latest Election Commission trends, TVK is leading in 107-109 of the 234 Assembly seats, just shy of the 118 majority mark. The AIADMK trails at 69, while the ruling DMK has been reduced to 58-a dramatic collapse for the incumbent. If TVK crosses the halfway line, it will script an unprecedented chapter: no party founded just two years ago has ever captured power in Tamil Nadu.
The scale of the DMK meltdown is staggering. Chief Minister M K Stalin is trailing in Kolathur by over 2,200 votes to TVK’s little-known V S Babu. Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin is behind in Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni. Fourteen DMK ministers-including Durai Murugan, Thangam Thennarasu, and K N Nehru-are trailing across their constituencies. The “Dravidian model” of governance, touted as Stalin’s trump card, appears to have been swept aside by a wave of anti-incumbency.
Vijay himself is leading from Tiruchirappalli East and Perambur, while his deputy Aadhav Arjuna is ahead in Villivakkam. The TVK surge has penetrated even the western Kongu belt-traditionally an AIADMK-BJP stronghold-and Chennai’s DMK bastions.
If the trends hold, this would rank alongside Tamil Nadu’s two greatest electoral upsets: Annadurai’s 1967 victory that ended Congress rule, and MGR’s 1977 triumph that birthed the AIADMK. Unlike MGR-who spent two decades in the DMK before becoming CM-Vijay has no prior political apprenticeship. That makes this potential victory without parallel.
But the arithmetic is delicate. If TVK falls short of 118, it will need a partner. The only viable option is the AIADMK, which is currently trailing far behind. Would Edappadi K Palaniswami-leading in Edappadi by 10,000 votes-agree to play junior partner to a first-time entrant? Or could Vijay attempt a post-poll rapprochement with a decimated DMK?
Meanwhile, the BJP is leading in just three of the 27 seats it contested. Most exit polls, which had given the DMK an edge, have been proven spectacularly wrong.
With every round of counting, Tamil Nadu stands at a crossroads. Vijay may be on the brink of making history-but whether he walks into the chief minister’s office alone or leaning on AIADMK’s shoulder is a cliffhanger only the final tally will resolve.
