New Delhi: Sunny Deol’s partition drama Batwara 1947 and Emraan Hashmi’s romance revenge drama Awarapan 2 are set to clash at the box office this Independence Day weekend. Both films are slated to release in theatres on August 14, 2026.
To understand which film is likely to lead the box-office race, we spoke to trade analysts Taran Adarsh, Girish Johar and Akshaye Rathi, who shared their insights on the films’ business prospects. While, Batwara 1947 is expected to open around Rs 11 crore to Rs 14 crore, Emraan Hashmi’s Awarapan 2 is likely to mint around Rs 7 crore to Rs 9 crore, according to trade analysts.
Batwara 1947 Box Office prediction Day 1
Opining over Rajkumar Santoshi’s Batwara 1947, trade analyst Taran Adarsh told us, “I think it’s going to open very well. There’s a strong undercurrent of emotion in the film. It’s a very unlikely Sunny Deol film. But, I would like to add that, you know, this combination of Sunny Deol and Rajkumar Santoshi has always worked in the past; Ghayal, Ghatak, Damini. People still enjoy those experiences.”
On the other hand, Girish Johar said, “It’s backed by Aamir Khan and is also directed by one of everyone’s favourite, Rajkumar Santoshi, who’s back with Sunny Deol. So they have already delivered three cult films together. This is the fourth outing they have. So yes, the expectations are high again, but I feel whatever promotions we’ve seen and the trailer we see, we feel that, you will get a sense that it’s not a mass commercial film.
It’s a little nuanced film with loads of drama. So, it may not appeal to the Tier 2, Tier 3 audience initially, but on the start, it is a little more metro, urban and, the people, high-income group kind of people. It’s a little more nuanced film rather than a pot-boiler commercial entrepreneur. However, the Partition theme will resonate with the audiences.”
“Again, on Friday, it may not, on the start, it may not, but Friday evening, you know, Saturday, Sunday, once the reviews are in, the word of mouth is in, everyone believes that it’s a film which should be watched through their own word of mouth and everything,” he added.
He further explained that when it comes to this particular target audience, Rajkumar Santoshi and Sunny Deol have previously delivered action-packed commercial films. If those films appealed to 100% of their audience, this film may initially appeal to only around 20-30 per cent.
“That is a literal difference for these kind of films. Having said that, we are not denying that the film may not succeed, but the initial appeal is only for those 30, you know, that limited audience,” he added.
Meanwhile, Akshaye Rathi believes, “Well, given the fact that this marks the collaboration of some fine minds from the entertainment space, where, you know, Mr. Sunny Deol represents the iconic mass hero, Mr. Rajkumar Santoshi is one of the finest storytellers for mass cinema, and Mr. Aamir Khan, who’s known to be one of the sharpest minds in the entertainment business. With these three coming together, the expectations obviously are very high, and all of us are hoping that, given the 15th August weekend that the movie is going to go through, the numbers will be terrific.”
“And when it comes to the opening day numbers, I think it’s looking like it could be anywhere between 11 to 14 crores on day one, and it should break out and go ballistic the next day, on the 15th of August, which is a national holiday,” he added.
Emphasising the importance of word of mouth for films, he told us, “The word of mouth of course is paramount for any film, enough and more films that have you know, opened really big and then collapsed on the second day because of bad word of mouth. And then there are many films that have opened very small and gone on to do ballistic business in the time to come. So the word of mouth, of course, the reports of the movie and how the audience is being engaged and entertained by it is absolutely paramount.”
“And we’ll see, there are just about three or four holidays in a year which go absolutely ballistic at the box office and Independence Day is one of them. And given the fact that Bhatwara and Aavarappan are enjoying that weekend, they have a terrific chance of breaking it out at the box office if the reports are good. And both of these films are very highly anticipated,” he added.
Will Batwara 1947 strike a chord with audience?
Trade analyst Traan Adarsh told us, “In Batwara 1947, the emphasis is on emotions. It’s about a mother with partition as the backdrop. And when Sunny moves to Lahore and then how he tries to save her from the mob there, because she’s a Hindu woman who has not migrated, who has been left alone there. So, I feel, those portions will really strike a chord, especially the climax. I think it’s going to really work big time, and there’s a dialogue, “Maa, Maa hoti hai.” It’s also going to be greeted with cheers and taalis and seetis. So, all in all, I feel it’s a very good experience. I feel that people are going to love the film.”
Will Batwara 1947 start slow at the box office?
Taran Adarsh shared, “You never know. Box office can be very unpredictable, because Sunny and Raj Santoshi have a huge following in the mass circuits. Never underestimate those stars. The 90s stars have proven it time and again that one should never write them off.”
“Look at Ajay Devgn, and the kind of business Dhamaal 4 is doing in Tier 2, Tier 3 centers. The same is the case with Akshay Kumar and Welcome to the Jungle. The 90s stars have cultivated their superstardom in the mass circuits over decades and it won’t get erased by a couple of bad films. You should never write them off. And Sunny Deol, of course, is the king of mass entertainers,” he added.
Batwara 1947 vs Awarapan box office clash
When asked if the clash will impact either of the movies releasing this week, Akshaye Rathi told us, “There are just about three or four holidays in a year which go absolutely ballistic at the box office, and Independence Day is one of them. And given the fact that Batwara 1947 and Awarapan 2 are enjoying that weekend, they have a terrific chance of breaking it out at the box office if the reports are good. And both of these films are very highly anticipated. Both of them come from, you know, people who have proven themselves at the box office time and again, and here’s hoping that it happens really well this time as well.”
“And when it comes to the clash, I don’t think there’s going to be too much of an impact on either of the films’ openings. Both are looking like they should open well within the capacity in terms of the number of seats and screens available to them on day one. And both of them, I think, you know, complement each other by catering to very different audience sets. And given that, they should be able to coexist very seamlessly at the box office,” he added.
On the other hand, Girish Johar said, “The good part is that the TG audiences of both the films are completely different. But Batwara is more nuanced, upper-class, whereas Awarapan is more commercial, banking on the earlier songs, Emraan Hashmi, action, revenge, love, drama, and it’s catering to the mass, more commercial audiences. So both have different sets of audiences.”
Awarapan 2 box office prediction Day 1
According to Akshaye Rathi, Emraan Hashmi starrer is expected to open around Rs 7 crore to Rs 9 crore.
He said, “For Awarapan 2, I think anywhere between Rs 7 crore to Rs 9 crore on day one should happen. And that, I think, is incredible given the fact that the lifetime collections of the first part 19 years ago were just about five crores. I really hope it goes on to do great numbers at the box office.”
Will the cult status of Awarapan benefit Awarapan 2?
Akshaye Rathi shared, “The first one, actually, contrary to belief, didn’t have that much hype. It released on the same day as, again, Sunny Deol’s Apne and Himesh Reshammiya’s Aap Ka Surroor. And both of these films outdid Aavarappan 19 years ago. So it actually acquired that cult status retrospectively and became incredibly popular.”
“I mean, the cult status now is truly valuable. And that, I think, is more than testified by the fact that this one will have a day one which is higher than the lifetime collection of Part One, which had released 19 years ago. So it will have compounded returns compared to the first one. And the cult status, the popularity of its music has ensured that the makers have recovered their investment into the movie already. And now everything that will come out of the theatrical numbers is only bonus at the box office,” he added.
According to Girish Johar, “The initial curiosity has been built. There are no two ways around it. So whatever, despite the first one doing average, the expectations of the second one are higher. So that clearly shows that people are looking out for this particular film, at least the commercial audiences. And Emraan Hashmi has been doing well whenever he is a commercial actor with good songs, bad-bad, good songs and all. So back on to doing these kind of films again, which is a good sign. Any start, despite Batwara being a bigger project and bigger thing, would be a bonus for them.”
