New Delhi: As counting is underway for Assembly elections 2026 across India, illegal betting activity has surged, with Mumbai’s satta bazar actively quoting rates for multiple states. While exit polls have indicated strong performances for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in states like West Bengal and Assam, the underground betting market is running its own parallel predictions-often shaping chatter in political and trading circles.
Operating through a network of local agents, bookies are reportedly accepting bets via phone calls and messaging platforms. Odds are adjusted in real time, based on campaign developments, exit polls, rallies and shifting political narratives. In this informal system, favourites offer lower returns, while underdogs attract higher payouts.
West Bengal in Focus as Betting Peaks
West Bengal remains the biggest draw in the betting circuit, given its 294 seats and majority mark of 148. According to satta bazar estimates, the BJP is being tipped to secure around 175-185 seats-comfortably crossing the halfway mark.
The ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, is projected to win roughly 127-132 seats. Other players like the Indian National Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and ISF are expected to remain in single digits.
Interestingly, betting trends show stronger confidence in BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari compared to the incumbent chief minister, signalling expectations of a tighter fight in key constituencies.
Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu: Mixed Signals from Betting Market
In Assam, the satta bazar suggests a clear advantage for the BJP, projecting 85-92 seats in the 126-member Assembly. The Congress is estimated to secure around 34-38 seats, aligning broadly with several survey trends.
Kerala presents a contrasting picture. Betting estimates indicate a potential comeback for the United Democratic Front (UDF), projected at 78-85 seats in the 140-member Assembly. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to secure 56-66 seats, while the BJP may win 2-3 seats.
Tamil Nadu’s projections point to a strong performance by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), with estimates ranging between 145-155 seats in the 234-member Assembly. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is expected to trail with 45-65 seats. Actor Vijay’s party TVK is projected to win 7-9 seats, while M. K. Stalin is seen retaining an edge in the race for chief minister.
Puducherry Race Too Close to Call
In Puducherry, the numbers suggest a tight contest. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is pegged at 15-18 seats, while the INDIA bloc is close behind at 14-17 seats. With such narrow margins, even minor shifts in voter turnout or alliances could influence the final outcome.
Despite their popularity, these satta bazar projections remain entirely unofficial and operate outside the legal electoral framework. However, they continue to attract attention for offering a different lens on electoral momentum.
